That sound you hear is the roar of basketball fans everywhere flooding into an NBA arena near you (well, maybe not in
Orlando and Atlanta). It's time for the 2005-2006 NBA season, and what better way to kick things off than with my annual season
preview. I know, I know, I'm about as reliable as an NBA analyst as Steve Francis is in a half court set, but just trust me.
Last season I wrote a combined 25 pages of mindless drivel that basically became meaningless once the Pacers and Pistons hooked
up in the Palace. Who would have thought that a thrown cup of beer and a broom and dust pan would totally throw off my season
predictions?
But whatever, it's a new season, and a new outlook.
So without further ado, here's a look at each team going into the 2005-2006 season. First we'll head into the West, and
then look at the battle out East. As always, we start from worst to first.
15. New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets By now we all know about the tragedy that hit the Louisiana area back in August. It was a very unfortunate situation, and
the city of New Orleans will never be the same. With that said, the show must go on, and the Hornets still have to play games.
There are some nice pieces in Naw'lins right now with rookie point guard Chris Paul joining young scoring machine J.R.
Smith. Those two will hook up for many ally-ups this season, but that's about the only positives for the immediate future.
Jamaal Magloire didn't make it to Christmas before the Hornets shipped him out. The rebuilding mode is in full effect. Byron
Scott might have a nervous breakdown by the all-star break.
Everyone is going to be rooting for the Hornets this season in wake of the hurricane tragedy, but in terms of basketball,
they have a long way to go before they're considered one of the sports best. Fortunately for the Hornets, with such a young team
and a rebuilding process, expectations are low.
14. Portland Trailblazers Speaking of teams with little expectations, the Blazers would be happy with a 25 win season. After years of "Jailblazers"
jokes where players were known more for their actions off the court instead of on it, the fans in Portland finally got fed up
and forced the Blazers hand. As a result, the team decided to rebuild and start over.
Don't be fooled. The Blazers are going to be competitive; new head coach Nate McMillan won't stand for anything less.
They have a pretty nice young crop of players. Sebastin Telfair is a small, yet talented guard who's still learning how to run a
team. Playing under former point guard McMillan can only help his game. With finishers Travis Outlaw and Darius Miles, the
Blazers are going to be very fun to watch. Lottery draft pick Martell Webster had a rough summer league, but should bounce back
and have a decent rookie season. Right now, he's about as mobile in a half court set as
Dennis Scott was waiting for a
Shaquille O'Neal double team. Playing in McMillan's motion offense,
however, will only help his game and allow Webster to showcase his athleticism, in addition to his sweet stroke.
Rookie Jarrett Jack and new Blazer Juan Dixon will bring a lot of energy in the backcourt, and trust me on this, keep an
eye on Viktor Khryapa and Sergei Monia. Both guys are very versatile, and I guarantee you that they are going to surprise a lot
of people. Oh by the way, Zach Randolph is back after knee surgery, and is an absolute stud and a guaranteed 20/10 guy.
But let's be fair. They're still the Blazers. You can't win many games with rookies and second year players. Veterans
like Theo Ratliff (at least until he gets traded) and Ruben Patterson (the self professed Kobe stopper) will keep the team
afloat, but at the end of the day, the Blazers success hinges on McMillan and his staff. If he can get the Blazers to play a
fun, up tempo style similar to the Sonics last season, rebuilding the Blazers might not be so bad.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves The quitters (Cassell and Sprewell) are long gone, and there's really nothing left in Minnesota. Of course there is the big
ticket Kevin Garnett, but he arguably has the worst cast of characters to play with since his early days in the league. Marko
Jaric has all of the tools to be a good point guard (height, floor vision, handle), but for whatever reason, he can't seem to
put it together. He makes worse decisions than the government. Rashad McCants will have an underrated season, but it won't be
enough to propel him to second banana. And Wally is just awful.
There's really nothing that excites me about this team. It's Kevin Garnett and nobody else. The big ticket needs a lot
of help to get the T-Wolves out of the gutter. Unless they make a mid-season blockbuster trade, I'm not holding my breath.
12. Utah Jazz If this were the Eastern Conference, the Jazz would be a lot higher. Things are just so stacked in the West that it's hard
to believe that the Jazz will finish much higher than here. Jerry Sloan is without a doubt the most underrated head coach in the
NBA. Equipped with lesser talent than most in the league, Sloan gets the very best out of his players and the Jazz always seem
to overachieve.
They have a nice nucleus with Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, Matt Harpring, and rookie point guard Deron Williams. The
Jazz aren't flashy, but they play with precision, balance, and a solid defensive strategy. If Sloan is the most underrated coach
in the league, then Kirilenko is certainly the most unappreciated. Before going down with a season ending injury early last
season, Kirilenko was a defensive Russian machine averaging almost five blocks a game. Yes, FIVE blocks a game.
If he can come back healthy, and if Boozer continues to show brilliance up front, the Jazz might surprise a lot of
people late in the season. Williams is a pass first point guard that the team has desperately needed since John Stockton
retired, and with plenty of solid players to pass to, he should have a field day on offense.
But again, this is the West, and in the West, there are so many talented teams that the Jazz's success and progression
from last season will surely get overshadowed by other surprise teams. Make no bones about it, however, the Jazz have a talented
nucleus and the right head coach in the drivers seat.
11. Los Angles Clippers The NBA should institute a new rule where teams can play with more than one basketball. That's the only the Clippers are
going to keep guys like Sam Cassell and
Cuttino Mobley happy. You have to feel for
Corey Maggette and Elton Brand; they've gone from the focal point of
the Clippers to two guys who'll have to pry the ball out of the hands of their stingy backcourt.
(Quick poll question: Who takes more shots this season, Cassell or Mobley? My money's on Mobley.)
Coach Mike Dunleavy has a huge task on his hands. How is he going to keep all of these players happy, while also
developing guys like Shaun Livingston and Chris Kaman? The Clippers are going to put a lot of points on the board and might
even flirt with a chance to make the playoffs, but at the end of the day, they're still the Clippers.
10. Golden State Warriors Don't believe the hype. Yes the Warriors probably have the most talent for the first time in over 30 years, but remember
these are still the Warriors. Here's my prediction on how they're season will unfold: The season will play out in typical
Warriors fashion. Just like every year, there is a lot of buzz going into the season. The thought of Baron Davis and Jason
Richardson in the backcourt brings a huge smile to the fans in Oakland. Davis is finally home, and seems to have a renewed focus
for the game after dogging it the last few seasons in Charlotte/New Orleans.
That buzz and anticipation will carry over to the first month of the season as the Warriors get out to a respectable
start. From there, things begin to fall apart as the team returns to Earth, and by the all-star break, guys like Davis and
Richardson will make late pushes for the all-star team.
The second half of the season will be another roller coaster ride. They'll win three and then lose three. Davis will go
down with yet another knee injury, and yet toward the end of the season, the Warriors go on one of those "9 wins in 11 games"
runs, and fans will believe the team has finally turned the corner. No one is going to want to play in the bay area at the tail
end of long road trips.
By the end of the season everyone will say how much better the Warriors are, how next season will be their year to make
the playoffs, and the cycle will repeat itself.
The Warriors have gotten better and will probably come within a game or two of making the playoffs, but let's not kid
ourselves. Davis can't seem to stay healthy. Richardson is not ready for the big time. Adonal Foyle is their starting center. On
top of that, Mike Montgomery is way over his head as head coach, and with so many clashing egos, the Warriors will essentially
beat themselves.
9. Phoenix Suns I had this big elaborate explanation about how the Suns were still one of the best teams in the West despite losing Quentin
Richardson and Joe Johnson. I had this long winded commentary about how Raja Bell and Kurt Thomas would bring toughness. I
actually thought that although the Suns would fall off this season, they were still capable of gaining home court advantage.
Then Amare Stoudamire went down with a micro-fracture in his knee, and that was that. If you're scoring at home, the
math is pretty simple: No Q plus No JJ multiplied by no Amare equals lottery!
Reigning MVP Steve Nash is one of the best point guards in the league, but if he doesn't have anyone to pass the ball to
(and Brian Grant and
Pat Burke definitely don't count), he becomes a lot less effective.
Without his pick and roll buddy, the Suns are in big trouble. What looked like another promising run to the finals suddenly
became a struggle to win 35 games. Here's hoping that Stoudamire can make a big return during the 2006-2007 season.
8. Los Angles Lakers What poetic justice it was last season when the Clippers finished ahead of the Lakers in the standings? Take that Kobe.
That'll teach you to flirt with the worst franchise in sports history only to leave them in the cold.
Anyway, it's a new season and a new day in the land of celebrities and fashion. The Lakers aren't much improved from
last season, but have added one of the best coaches in NBA history to the mix. Phil Jackson returns to the sidelines to coach
the man that just a season ago, ran him out of town.
Unfortunately for both, however, this time there is no 7 foot dominant center in the middle (but there is a white stiff).
For the Lakers to have any chance at making the playoffs, new forward Kwame Brown must show some form of consistency. In
addition, Lamar Odom must remain healthy and stay away from the bong; finally, someone from their awful front court (Mihm,
Medvedenko, or rookie Andrew Bynum) must have an out of body experience this season.
Kobe and Jackson have promised to be on their best behavior this season, and I just can't count that tandem out. Of all
the teams that have a chance of sneaking into the playoffs, the Lakers are the best of the bunch. They have the better coach,
and the better player. Sure, their bench looks like extras in a bad basketball movie, and they still haven't solved their point
guard problem (Aaron McKie and Smush Parker don't count), but you just can't go against a team led by Bryant and coached by the
Zen master. This is the season where the Lakers make it back into the playoffs. From there, they get bounced in the first round.
Nevertheless, it's a step in the right direction.
7. Memphis Grizzles Call me crazy, but I've officially jumped off the Grizzles bandwagon. It's clear that Jerry West has lost his touch
(although I won't be surprised if he pulls off a blockbuster deal before it's all said and done). They traded underrated
defender James Posey and replaced him with an aging Eddie Jones. They replaced erratic and shot happy (but young) point guard
Jason Williams with erratic and shot happy (but much older) Damon Stoudamire. I'm still not a believer in Pau Gasol as a
dominant player (damn soft Euros), and other than
Mike Miller, Shane Battier, and a banged up Bobby Jackson, there's
really nothing special about this team.
With that said, I'm still picking them to make the playoffs, if only by default. If head coach Mike Fratello wants to
really put his team over the top, he'll put Gasol at center and start Hakim Warrick (my sleeper pick for ROY). It's almost time
for another reshuffling in Memphis, but they still have enough for one last run to the postseason.
6. Seattle Super Sonics This is what I wrote about the Sonics during my NBA preview last season:
"Somebody better start praying, because it will take a miracle for this team to achieve more than 30 wins."
The lesson as always, I'm an idiot.
The Sonics had a great run last season. Ray Allen (who by the way, was in a contract year) had one of the best seasons
of his career. Rashard Lewis became a legit all-star and Luke Ridnour became a cross between John Stockton and Mark Price. Just
a great season all around for the boys in the rainy city.
But last year was last year. I just can't believe in a repeat performance. Nate McMillan was a big reason why the Sonics
excelled, and now he's in Portland. Their best defending guard and sixth man Antonio Daniels signed with the Wizards during the
off-season, and with all the teams in the West (namely the Kings, Rockets, and Suns) getting better or staying relatively the
same, I don't see the Sonics keeping up. Allen had a great year last season, but now he's got his money and his security.
The Sonics don't make it out of the first round.
Book it, print it, and engrave it in stone.
5. Dallas Mavericks Dallas head coach Avery Johnson finally has a full season to coach his way. The Mavs are a very good offensive basketball
team, but Johnson will have his players playing solid defense for the first time in years. You have to be concerned, however,
with the way Dirk Nowitzki threw his teammates (namely Eric Dampier and Jason Terry) under the bus after losing to the Suns in
the Western Conference Semis.
(By the way, how could Nowitzki call out Dampier and Terry after they basically carried him into the second round after
Nowitzki took a huge dump in round one? Nowitzki couldn't get by the Rockets' Ryan Bowen in round one, and yet he's mad at
Dampier for getting beat by future hall of famer Amare Stoudamire.)
Waiving Michael Finley will have a much bigger affect than many people believe. There's really no one (other than maybe
Terry) who can provide the leadership and consistency that Finley brought to the table. I can understand why he was released,
but it's going to be a much bigger deal for this team to handle once the playoffs roll around.
I love the toughness that Terry brings, I think Keith Van Horn has finally found his home as a 7th option, and the
young boys Marquis Daniels and Josh Howard will continue their solid play. Hopefully Devin Harris can take command of the point
guard position, and the Mavericks appear set for the future. But right now, they're not much better than they were last season,
and that means they finish essentially in the same spot. There are so many questions going in that even owner Mark Cuban can't
buy answers to.
Can Nowitzki have another huge season? Will his teammates follow him? Will Doug and Jackie Christie cause a ruckus if
Doug doesn't play? Does
Darrell Armstrong have anything left?
So many questions, but one thing is for sure, Avery will have these guys playing hard every night. And that's enough for
home court.
4. Houston Rockets After starting last season slow, the Rockets quickly created momentum. Head coach Jeff Van Gundy scrapped his walk-the-ball
offense that worked so well for the 90's Knicks, and instead developed an offense that tailored more to the talents of his team.
From there, Houston sky rocketed (no pun intended) and almost gained home court advantage in the first round against Dallas.
During the playoffs, the Rockets grabbed a commanding 2-0 lead led by a totally insane, extremely motivated
Tracy McGrady. But when it was all said and done, the Mavericks depth
prevailed.
So how do you follow up last season's success?
The Rockets inked former Memphis forward Stromile Swift to a multi-year contract. His signing gives the Rockets the
advantage they needed to stay competitive in the West. Swift is a very talented player who will have a much greater impact with
the Rockets that many will give him credit for. Van Gundy now has options that he can explore with his lineups. He can go with
a half court offensive scheme with Yao Ming in the middle, or open things up with Swift in the middle of a quicker lineup.
I love their guards. Rafer Alston is going to be a big addition to the team. The same can be said about
Derek Anderson. These two, along with Jon Barry, Bob Sura (once he returns from injury), and David Wesley, give the Rockets a
very strong perimeter game and opens up the lanes for McGrady to work his magic and spreads the floor for Ming to work in the
post.
No one wants to play this team come playoff time. If McGrady can become more of a leader and show more flashes of his
brilliance during the Dallas series (single-handily shutting Dirk Nowitzki down), then the Rockets have a great chance of making
it out of the first round, and could actually make it all the way to the Western Conference finals. The Rockets are one of the
most dangerous teams in the West.
3. Sacramento Kings Mike Bibby and Shareef Abdur-Rahim are back together. They join Bonzi Wells, Peja, and Brad Miller in a loaded starting
lineup. How can you not like this team? The Kings have always been talented, but no one ever really took them seriously. Maybe
it was the Chris Webber factor.
Anyway, the days of Webber and Divac are over. The Kings have quietly rebuilt their team and will surprise a lot of
people. Corliss Williamson is a great bench player. Joining him is Kevin Martin (the next
Doug Christie...although I'm not sure that's exactly a good thing),
Kenny Thomas (very underrated), and Francisco Garcia (another quality player many teams passed up).
With teams like Seattle, Houston, and Denver getting most of the attention, the Kings are in a great position to contend
for home court advantage. With Phoenix out of the picture and the Lakers still improving, the Kings are easily the winners of
the Pacific division. I guess their window of opportunity hasn't bolted completely shut after all.
2. Denver Nuggets Just think. Five years ago the Nuggets were the laughingstock of the NBA. We can all remember
Tracy McGrady going for 30 points in the first half against the
Nuggets. Every team wanted to take their turn beating on Denver. They were the best way to end a long losing streak and gain a
little team momentum. If you were riding a 4 game losing streak and saw the Nuggets on the schedule, you'd be happier than Tom
Cruise on Oprah. The old adage was, "we're bad, but we're not
Denver Nuggets bad!"
If you haven't been paying attention, those days are now over. With the drafting of Carmelo Anthony, and several smart
moves over the past few years, the Nuggets find themselves as one of the best teams in the Western Conference. General manager
Kiki Vanderwieghe has transformed the Nuggets from a soft, inconsistent team into a bruising, solid nucleus.
Word is, Anthony has shed about 15-20 pounds from last season, and has been working hard on his game all summer. Now is
as good a time as any for the Nuggets to make a serious playoff run. They've taken their lumps with two straight first round
exits, but with a full season under head coach George Karl, the Nuggets are ready to excel to the next level.
With Minnesota and Seattle both a step behind, the Nuggets should easily win the North West division. If Anthony can
raise his game to a higher level (ala Dwayne Wade in the 2004 playoffs), then the Nuggets could actually contend for a
championship.
Who would have ever believed that five years ago?
1. San Antonio Spurs The rich just keep getting richer. Normally, when a team wins an NBA championship, they tend to rest on their success and
bring back the exact same team that won it all. And why not? If it worked the first time, why couldn't it work a second time?
Not the Spurs. Knowing that everyone around them would get better, the Spurs stayed ahead of the curve and the increase
of talent in the West. Equipped with a little more than $7 million to spend this off-season, the Spurs made the best of their
limited options, and are now prime and ready for their first repeat in franchise history. We all knew the Spurs were dynasty
material, what with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker signed through 2010, but their latest moves for this season have
clearly made them clearly the team to beat.
First, they re-signed Big Shot Bob, Robert Horry. He was the biggest reason for the Spurs latest championship
(just ask Rasheed Wallace). Then, they signed one of, if not the best, European big men, Argentinean Fabricio Oberto. This adds
more depth to a solid front court. During the finals, rookie Beno Udric proved that he's still a ways away from taking over the
backup point guard role on a consistent basis, so the Spurs signed sharp shooter Nick Van Excel. While tricky Nicky isn't as
quick as he used to be, he's proven that he can be a valuable asset to any winning team when motivated. He thrives on taking big
shots and he, along with Big Shot Bob, can make big shots in pressure situations.
Finally, with a little over $2.5 million left to spend, the Spurs made the biggest free agent acquisition of the
off-season by signing former Mavericks guard Michael Finley. Finley – who flirted with signing with the Suns, Timberwolves, and
Heat – brings defense, consistent outside shooting, and a veteran presence. He and Van Excel should fit nicely in head coach
Gregg Popovich's team oriented schemes. Neither player will be relied upon to play heavy minutes.
The best part of these acquisitions is that regardless of whether or not Van Excel or Finley (both over 30) have
anything left in the tank, the Spurs are still championship material without them. Essentially, these moves are icing on the
cake for an already stacked team. Their addition has less to do with the regular season, but more to do with the playoffs. The
one knock on the Spurs throughout their dominance has been their lack of a killer instinct. They haven't been able to finish off
teams in close-out games. Van Excel and Finley, along with Horry, are all capable of putting daggers in the heart of any team.
Now, when the Spurs have a 3-0 lead in a series, they have the weapons necessary to bury their opponent instead of giving them a
glimmer of hope.
A secondary combination of Fabricio, Horry, Finley, Barry, and Van Exel is better than some starting lineups, and the
Spurs have the most talented team in franchise history.
(And oh, by the way, they have the best basketball player on the planet)
Expectations are high, but the Spurs have the depth to live up to them. It's for that reason that I'm easily picking
them to finish first in the Western Conference. Anything less than a finals run will be a failure, but with Duncan as the focal
point and leader of this team, I can't see the Spurs settling for anything less.
