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DARKO MILICIC TRADE ANALYSIS
by Philip Rossman-Reich - February 16, 2006
Wednesday the Orlando Magic completed a deal with the Detroit Pistons, acquiring Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo for Kelvin Cato and a 2007 top five-protected first round draft pick. Speculation has it that this is not the final move for the Magic as they are still in discussion with numerous teams regarding Steve Francis.

But, in this trade the Magic are getting some bodies to, almost literally this year, throw into the fire. The Magic - although no longer an excuse - have had to deal with injuries for most of the season. It is important that the Magic are using their roster spots and Cato has been dead weight this season.

On the court, however, we will have to wait and see whether the Magic can get better. Darko Milicic gives the Magic a young, unproven player to back up and support Dwight Howard. Milicic, heading into the draft, was scouted as a good passer and decent jump shooter for a big man. His upside was something that the Pistons could not pass up at a position they needed. They too thought that Milicic could be the help for Ben Wallace offensively - remember they didn't have Rasheed Wallace yet.

However, the Pistons and their former head coach Larry Brown lost faith in the young player very early and Milicic never fit into the already successful rotation of Detroit. If Milicic had been drafted by a worse team, I do not think he would become an immediate superstar, but I think he could have been a solid player in the NBA. Being drafted by the Pistons was just unlucky for this player. The team wasn't right and the coach wasn't right.

However, when Milicic did get into games he looked uninspired and lost. He has never looked in place on an NBA court. Watching him Tuesday night versus New Jersey - as the Pistons blew out the Nets - he wasn't making the hustle plays that would earn a player minutes. I don't know what is happening in practice and he supposedly has a good reputation in practice and just couldn't crack the rotation in Detroit. There has to be truth to both sides of this player.

Milicic's worth will be discovered very quickly when he comes to Orlando. Will he be able to grasp head coach Brian Hill's system quickly and will he be able to produce when given the minutes?

The Magic also acquired Carlos Arroyo in the trade. Arroyo proved in the Olympics of 2004 in Athens that he can be a fiery leader and a great shooter. However, his coaches have always been trying to get rid of him. Jerry Sloan had trouble with him in Utah and Larry Brown and Flip Saunders had trouble with him in Detroit. I don't see Arroyo being with the Magic long term. He is kind of a stop gap until Jameer Nelson returns from injury and/or the inevitable trade of Steve Francis.

Salary cap-wise, Arroyo and Milicic are both under contract until the end of the 2007-08 season. Don't be surprised if this deal fails if they are put up on the trading block sometime next season. The Magic are making a major commitment towards Milicic. It is worth the risk. He has the talent to be a number two pick. Pair him with the right player and he could be a decent player. It is up to him to be successful.

On the Steve Francis front, no rumors have surfaced in the media that sound any good to the Magic - or even to the teams proposing them. The New York Knicks are offering Brian Hill's favorite player - Penny Hardaway - with Jamal Crawford and either Trevor Ariza, Nate Robinson, or David Lee. The deal with the Knicks is pure media and fan speculation.

Isaiah Thomas wants Steve Francis for some reason, but the Magic are already too loaded with point guards. With the deal they have made with Detroit they have Jameer Nelson, Keyon Dooling, Carlos Arroyo, and Travis Diener to play point guard in addition to Francis. It wouldn't make sense to add one more to that list - not to mention the possibility of adding Nate Robinson to that list.

The media isn't reporting anything involving the Denver Nuggets or Minnesota Timberwolves who are also interested in Francis. I do not think Francis will be traded before next Thursday's deadline. The Magic are weighing their midseason options, but will probably actively pursue a deal over the summer.
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